2011 INFORMS Annual Meeting
Charlotte, NC
Why Good Simulations Go Bad
Barry L. Nelson
Walter P. Murphy Professor and Chair, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University
Simulation is a powerful tool to design, evaluate and improve the kinds of systems and processes that concern operations researchers and management scientists. Far from its early role as the brute force method of last resort, simulation now supports decision making both routine and critical. The software, and knowledge about how to use it, are widespread. But simulation frequently involves a large commitment of time, effort and money, and users often do not get everything they paid for; even worse, the results they do get may be seriously misleading. This talk describes common ways that good simulations go bad and how to avoid (or at least recognize) them. No background in simulation is assumed, and lots of examples will be provided to support the technical points.
Barry L. Nelson is the Walter P. Murphy Professor and Chair of the Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences at Northwestern University. He received his BA in mathematics and computer science from DePauw University and his MS and PhD in industrial engineering from Purdue University. Before coming to Northwestern in 1995 he was on the faculty at The Ohio State University. His research is on the design and analysis of computer simulation experiments on models of discrete-event, stochastic systems, with applications to manufacturing, services, finance and transportation. Nelson has published numerous papers and two books, including Discrete-Event System Simulation, 5th edition, which has been adopted by over 60 universities. He is a Fellow of INFORMS and IIE. In 2006 he received the Outstanding Simulation Publication Award from the INFORMS Simulation Society for his work on simulation optimization, and in 2007 and 2010 he was awarded the Best Paper-Operations Award from IIE Transactions. He has also received the Northwestern University Alumni Association Excellence in Teaching Award, and has twice been named McCormick Teacher of the Year in engineering at Northwestern.
OMEGA RHO, the official Honor Society of INFORMS, was founded in 1976 to recognize superior scholarship and encourage leadership in operations research, management science, and related disciplines. The society has 39 active collegiate chapters, more than 5,000 student and faculty members and is a member of the Association of College Honor Societies. In addition to sponsoring OMEGA RHO Distinguished Lectures at INFORMS Annual and International meetings, OMEGA RHO provides financial support to the annual INFORMS Colloquium. Honorary Membership in OMEGA RHO is bestowed upon individuals who provide leadership and extraordinary support for the encouragement of operations research and management science through their professional activities. Prior to delivering the OMEGA RHO Distinguished Lecture, Barry L. Nelson will be inducted as the 45th Honorary Member of OMEGA RHO. Visit OMEGA RHO online: http://omegarho.informs.org